News analysis: There may be trouble ahead

Museums and galleries are bracing themselves for a recession that is likely to be deeper and more extensive than first thought.

Anecdotal evidence reveals that the R-word is on most people's lips and the general expectation is that tough times are ahead. Some museums are already developing strategies to deal with the downturn, and there are also some coordinated efforts to help the sector through this difficult period.

Museums Sheffield illustrates the difficult climate in which museums as businesses find themselves. In July the trust, whose main funder is the local authority, revealed that it was in financial difficulties (see link below). Debts of £600,000 were not helped when the hike in energy costs hit in the summer.

Nick Dodd, Museums Sheffield's chief executive, says it was the speed of the rising costs - an 85 per cent increase in October alone - that pushed the service into further difficulty and meant management had to deal with the problem quickly.

The result is a reallocation of budgets, looking at expanding into different markets (weddings and corporate events for instance) and informing the staff that there could be redundancies.

But with all these financial woes, visitor numbers at Sheffield are up by 28 per cent, and if there is any trend this seems to be it - across non-charging regional museums.

Roy Clare, chief executive of the Museums, Libraries and Archives Council, believes the recession is an opportunity to show the worth of museums. He says local government should be reminded that culture is at the heart of communities.

Clare has set up a coordination group to share evidence and guidance about the effects of the downturn on museums. This will be done mostly through email but they will meet face-to-face as well.

The group includes the Museums Association, the National Museums Directors' Conference (NMDC), Culture 24, the Collections Trust, the Association of Independent Museums (Aim), and the Local Government Association as well as library and archive representatives.

Clare says real data will be fed through to the culture secretary's office. He emphasises that the sector must use this as an opportunity to build on workforce skills and get museums and galleries on a healthy footing so they are in a strong position when the recession lifts.

But it is clear that one strategy won't fit all, just as there are no easy conclusions to be drawn as to how museums and galleries as a whole will be affected by the recession.

Aim is reporting a mixed picture among its members. Chatham Historic Dockyard, a charging organisation, recorded a decline in visitor numbers in mid-September but spending levels were sustained. Bill Ferris is the chief executive at Chatham and the chairman of Aim. He says all Aim's 650 members are working hard on next year's budgets: "The assumption is gloom."

The NMDC is also closely monitoring the situation. The Victoria and Albert Museum says that though visitor numbers are so far unaffected, visitor spend is down and it expects self-generated income to be down. Of course, the national museums do have some insulation from their three-year government funding agreement, which ends in 2011.

In the absence of a national picture, there was a feeling that in the run up to Christmas this might be the last hurrah and next year will be extremely challenging. Some are forecasting that it will only be when we are approaching the London Olympics in 2012 that things will begin to ease.

If you have any information on how the recession is affecting your museum or gallery please email felicity@museumsassociation.org