In the struggle for survival, let’s not repeat our past mistakes

While the newspapers report signs of recovery (apart from the bit about the numbers of unemployed) and museums happily discuss the strong home market, it is hard to get anyone to face the true nature of public sector funding cuts for the next 10 years.

In doing the background research for my keynote address to this year's Museums Association conference I have been intrigued by the characteristics of some of my colleagues (no museum professionals were hurt during this research).

I have met the Ostrich ("We're doing such a great job, surely it won't be all that bad"), the Pessimist ("We're all doomed!"), and the Statistician ("Well, if you compare this to the last recession..."), but very few see any opportunities for great change or are even thinking beyond the next comprehensive spending review.

I decided therefore to make my keynote a bit provocative. Its purpose? To try and help us to think, not about what we are going to do in the next two to three years, but what we might want to be in 25 years, taking into account changing demographics, changing audience demand and issues of sustainability, governance and value-for-money service delivery.

I have created a model of a museum in 2034. It's not perfect, it is not the only answer but I hope it gives food for thought in an environment where the boom of the last 15 years is over, where climate change is one of the factors people consider when deciding whether to visit a museum, and where the future for the "real" things over the digital is an ongoing debate. As a sector we are capable of great creative vision, and we can harness it to change our future.

I don't think anything is unachievable, but I do think revolution is needed and with revolution comes pain. You only need to pick up a paper or this magazine to see the latest round of cuts, with museums reducing their opening hours or being mothballed.

How long can a museum be mothballed before its end is inevitable? If all these museums close, what is the future of the listed buildings they vacate and what about the new purpose-built buildings that close?

The sector is unsustainable, our employment and governance practices (in the publicly funded museums) hamper good public service and our staff are weary under mission-altering targets and the chase for revenue.

We need to decide what a sustainable sector looks like and be bold about what it takes to achieve. Former US president Abraham Lincoln said: "The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise to the occasion."

So, what are we trying to protect? What is the right level of museum provision to serve our domestic and international visitor base? What should it cost to manage and run an effective museum? Why do we tolerate such high fixed costs?

What we shouldn't do is fight for the status quo rather than accepting that we can change to be part of the solution this country needs to recover from recession - this requires negotiation and compromise and there will be winners and losers.

We have to ask; are we really so great, are we really efficient and can we defend all of our practices? For example, despite some very worthy projects and excluding the excellent work that University College London has been doing, the majority of museums still haven't got their heads around acquisitions and disposals.

We should be concerned about our lack of progress in removing the barriers to sharing and disposing (by whatever means) of unwanted material or loan collections.

We should hang our heads in shame at the amount of public money going on storing domestic rubbish (I know I will be lynched by social historians and archaeologists but if we're honest...). The Imperial War Museum is no saint in this either, but at least we are going to do something about it.

And how are we going to lead our way out of this? Hopefully by not making the same mistakes after the last recession where we struggled manfully on with the same issues, not fighting for change, allowing money when it was there, be it Heritage Lottery Fund or Renaissance, to paper over the cracks and mask significant revenue challenges and museums on the brink of collapse. This time there is no bailout on the horizon.

But let's not be too depressed; no industry survives without change. In the late 1970s the independent museum sector, which employs some of the greatest visionaries in museums, gave public sector museums a well-aimed shove towards new practice.

The government agenda on access has further changed our attitudes and spaces and given us a world advantage in visitor engagement. This time let's not wait for someone else to intervene.

Diane Lees is the director general of the Imperial War Museum.